As forecasts cool, exhibitors and organizers emphasize early planning and flexibility
As 2026 begins, the tradeshow and events industry is looking toward a year of careful planning and cautious optimism. Economic growth has slowed, costs remain high, and policy uncertainty continues to weigh on travel and investment decisions. On show floors and in planning offices, exhibitors and organizers alike are weighing every dollar and decision. Still, industry leaders say preparation and adaptability may be the best tools for staying steady in a softer market.
Economic signals and early warnings
The U.S. economy is still expanding, but the runway is getting shorter. According to Anirban Basu, chief economist at Sage Policy Group, the current slowdown looks more like deceleration than decline.
“While Sage has predicted softening economic growth, we have stopped short of predicting recession in 2025/26,” he told Exhibit City News (ECN) in October. “Even though job growth has softened markedly, the economy is still producing solid retail sales and strong mid-year gross domestic product figures. The risk of recession remains elevated, however, and could be triggered by a sharp decline in equity market values.”
Reading the signals
Basu’s warning fits the data. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August 2025 Employment Situation report was the last one released before the federal shutdown in 2025 paused new economic numbers. It showed that total nonfarm payroll employment “changed little, up by 22,000,” and that the unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent to $36.53, a 3.7 percent year-over-year gain. Those figures confirm a labor market that has slowed but not stalled.
Basu also points to travel spending as an early warning sign of slowing activity. “When business softens and payroll becomes more difficult to meet, among the first items to be slashed from corporate budgets is travel,” he says. “It tends to be expensive and is often viewed as discretionary.”
Soft data, steady floors
The Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) Q2 2025 Index Report offers a matching snapshot of moderation. CEIR found that overall event performance grew just 1.2 percent during the second quarter, with 32.7 percent of tracked events surpassing their 2019 levels, down from nearly 40 percent a year earlier. Attendance was only 3.7 percent below 2019, but real revenues remained 15.6 percent lower. Analysts cited government policy, tariffs, and inflation as the most significant headwinds for organizers and exhibitors alike.
Tariffs, travel, and turbulence
That list of concerns is familiar to Tommy Goodwin, vice president of government affairs for the Exhibitions and Conferences Alliance (ECA).
“From a policy perspective, 2026 will be the year of tariffs and travel,” he says. “The Supreme Court decision in Learning Resources v. Trump will determine the direction of tariffs in 2026 and beyond. This will have a tremendous impact on costs for organizers, exhibitors, suppliers, and attendees.”
While Basu focuses on the broader economy, Goodwin points to international travel as another potential flashpoint. “From an international travel perspective, developments around international travel policy—travel bans, visa bond program expansion, visa wait times, etc.—will determine whether 2025’s international travel slump is an aberration… or a harbinger of things to come.”
Goodwin says ECA will continue monitoring both issues closely. “In our politics-first world, ECA will continue to keep its finger on the pulse of what’s happening in Washington, DC for the industry. With political and policy changes coming daily and weekly, I encourage everyone to stay close to ECA and our resources that we have for the industry.”
He points exhibitors, organizers, and suppliers to the ECA Tariff Resource Center and the ECA Public Policy Update newsletter, which track policy developments affecting the events sector.
One recent ECA update illustrates the stakes. An October 2025 policy alert noted that tariffs on softwood lumber imports have pushed duties to about 45 percent. The report said those increases “significantly impact the events sector” by raising costs for furniture and exhibit-furnishing refreshes. Such cost pressures serve as a proxy for the broader supply-chain and materials risks that trade show organizers face.
Planning smart, spending smarter
For exhibitors and builders, that fragile balance between confidence and caution defines planning for the year ahead. At Genesis Exhibits, Strategic Marketing & Client Engagement Advisor Al Mercuro says most clients are proceeding normally but with an eye on rising costs. “If the first three quarters of this year are any indication, it’s been business as usual,” he says. “We haven’t seen much impact from the broader economy or tariff concerns so far, but cost pressures will weigh more heavily as clients finalize 2026 budgets.”
Mercuro says that while spending restraint is likely, exhibitors have practical tools to stay effective. “At Genesis, our focus is on helping clients plan smart and early. Early planning allows them to lock in lower shipping and show service rates, which can make a big difference. We also offer flexible rental and modular exhibit solutions, which let clients achieve high-impact designs without the long-term commitment or tariff exposure of full custom builds. Beyond the exhibit itself, we work with clients to evaluate ROI from past shows and guide them in pre-show marketing strategies to ensure every dollar they spend is working harder for them.”
Mercuro says his team is also exploring how artificial intelligence can make planning more efficient. Genesis recently introduced an AI-based tool to help exhibitors manage budgets, timelines, and requests for proposals, part of a broader push across the industry to use technology for smarter show preparation.
He adds that technology has become a key tool for managing costs. “We’re seeing steady, modest increases across most categories, mainly from materials, labor, and freight,” Mercuro says. “A positive trend is the use of AI in design—many clients now bring AI-generated concepts, which helps our team align faster and cut design hours. Demand is also rising for rentals and modular builds, which are less affected by tariffs. The biggest cost wildcards remain shipping and show services, but early planning and smart logistics can help minimize those impacts.”
Despite the talk of slowdown, Mercuro still sees opportunity. “Absolutely. Even with talk of a slowdown, companies recognize the value of face-to-face marketing,” he says. “We continue to see strong demand from industries launching new products, expanding into new markets, or reestablishing their tradeshow presence after a few years away. Clients are being more selective about where they exhibit, but they’re investing strategically to make sure those key shows deliver results. Creativity, flexibility, and smart planning remain the winning formula.”
Cautious confidence ahead
Taken together, the economic and industry signals suggest a year of adjustment, not retreat. The August jobs report shows employment still positive, CEIR’s numbers point to slower but steady event participation, and industry leaders describe audiences that remain engaged. The recent tariff update adds a sharper policy risk that could translate into higher costs and tighter planning. The challenge for 2026 will be doing more with less and doing it early.
Whether the economy avoids a formal recession will depend on exactly what Basu flagged: equity markets, layoffs, and confidence. If those hold steady, the industry’s cautious optimism could prove justified. If they slip, early planning and flexible design may be what keeps the show floor humming.
Image CC: Adobe Stock
This story originally appeared in the Q1 2026 issue of Exhibit City News, p. 18. For original layout, visit https://issuu.com/exhibitcitynews/docs/exhibit_city_news_-_jan_feb_mar_2026/18.
